On the eve of the seven-year anniversary of Britain’s fateful vote to leave the European Union (EU), it is clear that next year's general election will not be a Brexit watershed. The misery caused by Brexit will continue at least for another five years.
Any sober observer will recognise that Brexit has been a colossal mistake. Polls show that a majority of British voters now think leaving the EU was a bad idea. Millions of Britons, who became 'Brexit hand maidens' by not voting in 2016, especially the young, now see the errors of their ways as their opportunities in Europe have been sharply curtailed. Meanwhile, the British economy is seriously underperforming and the UK has become marginalised on the global stage.
By all measures, it would therefore seem that the conditions are in place for a major change in the direction of Britain’s relations with the EU after the next general election, which is likely be held sometime in the second half of 2024 or in early 2025.
Unfortunately, things are no so simple. In fact, it is unlikely that there will be a Brexit watershed after the next election, all the powerful arguments to the contrary notwithstanding. The reason is that all members of the British political establishment are today wedded to Brexit in one way or another - and this will take time to change.
Firstly, policies will have to change as the official policies of both major political parties – Conservatives and Labour – still maintain that Brexit must be made to work for Britain. Secondly, at least two elections will be required to purge the pro-Brexit majority from parliament, given that Most British MPs were voted into office in 2017 or 2019 on pro-Brexit tickets.
The current pro-Brexit political hierachy will not only be in charge right up to eve of the next election night, but they will also greatly influence the choice of candidates to represent their parties at the next general election. Are they likely to be supportive of pro-EU candidates? Highly unlikely.
It is therefore likely that next genera election that the incumbent pro-Brexit politicians will be booted out in large numbers only to be replaced by “mini-mes”, that is, politicians whose views do not differ significantly from their predecessors.
Granted, fringe parties, such as the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, who are free to campaign on strong pro-EU platforms, could do very well, but Britain’s first-past-the-post election system all but guarantees a Tory-Labour political duopoly, so smaller parties are unlikely to pose a serious challenge to status quo. In short, do not expect big change after the next election.
The only silver-lining is that British voters will have sent a loud and clear message that Britain's love affair with Brexit is over. This message may have an effect over the following five years so that a Brexit watershed cannot be ruled out, but not until after the general election of late 2029 or early 2030.
Investors and anyone considering Britain for residential or education purposes therefore need to take the chill pill. Brexit, although already an established disaster, is not going away anytime soon. Brexit will continue to wreck havoc for at least another five years, possibly longer. So, while there will surely be a time to re-enter the UK, it will definitely not be next year.