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Jan Dehn's Blog
Commentary on the world

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When AI takes your job...
When AI has taken away all jobs, the vast majority of voters will no longer have an income. The resulting unemployment and inequality will be socially unacceptable. What is the solution?

Jan Dehn
Jun 46 min read


Are Republicans fiscally responsible?
November's mid-term election is likely to produce the worst possible political constellation as far as US public debt is concerned. Here is why you should worry.

Jan Dehn
May 3110 min read


The economic alarm bells are ringing
Bond markets are signalling a major policy clusterfuck on the part of the Trump Administration, while stock markets are on an AI bender. Which market is right?

Jan Dehn
May 219 min read


Time to revisit growth regressions?
If per capita GDP growth rates are non-linear then human progress may owe more to removing constraints to growth than supporting growth drivers per se.

Jan Dehn
May 38 min read


Oil: Are you ready to hit the wall?
So far the rise in oil prices has been driven by market speculation alone. The real supply shock hit us within weeks unless we get a speedy resolution to the Iran War.

Jan Dehn
Apr 153 min read


The short and happy life of EM currencies
Why are EM currencies rallying versus the US dollar? Here is quite take and the main implications.

Jan Dehn
Feb 115 min read


Conflict of interest
Trump is framing Jerome Powell in order to put a sycophantic stooge in his place as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. We should all worry.

Jan Dehn
Jan 129 min read


US long-term economic growth: heading up the creek
The Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded for insights into the drivers of long-term economic growth. The US government is heading the wrong way as far as growth policy is concerned.

Jan Dehn
Oct 16, 20258 min read


China - least imperialistic major power ever
The West has gone to war with China on the misguided belief that tariffs can fix trade imbalances. There is a far better way.

Jan Dehn
Aug 1, 20257 min read


The US-EU trade deal
The US-EU trade deal has been touted as a Trump win. It is not. In fact, it is a big US own goal and here is why.

Jan Dehn
Jul 29, 20254 min read


Right-wing populism & the finance industry
The finance industry struggles to distinguish between populists and technocrats on the Right. It is costly.

Jan Dehn
Apr 7, 20256 min read


Will the Trump Dump turn into a Trump Slump?
The Trump Dump is here! Will it become a Trump Slump? Expect a bounce in Q2, but Trump policies are hurting long-term prospects for the US.

Jan Dehn
Mar 11, 20253 min read


Hubris: The AI cavalry arrives!
The competition has arrived. American Big Tech AI monopolies are in trouble. And it is a very good thing.

Jan Dehn
Jan 27, 20254 min read


The AI bubble
AI is a bubble. Data is a key constraint. Here are some thoughts about what AI can realistically achieve.

Jan Dehn
Dec 28, 20247 min read


Economic nationalism: Trump courts conflict with his trade wars
Tariffs! Trump tries again. He failed last time. Will this time be any different?

Jan Dehn
Nov 26, 202411 min read


Want to cut immigration? You can’t afford to!
Anti-immigrant polices cost you. Europe needs to find 45 million new workers or face stagnation.

Jan Dehn
May 9, 20245 min read


Why I have always liked Bitcoin
Why is Bitcoin a worthwhile investment? And how should you dabble in this space?

Jan Dehn
Mar 12, 20246 min read


The safe asset delusion
There is no such thing as a risk-free return. Why, then, does the finance industry keep referring to safe assets?

Jan Dehn
Feb 26, 202412 min read


How to tackle E-commerce monopolies through competition
Greater competition will help to realise online commerce's full potential. Beckn protocol enables all buyers and all sellers to participate.

Jan Dehn
Feb 6, 20249 min read


Anthem for doomed bonds
Everyone knows that government bonds in rich countries are risk free. Crises are impossible by definition. Don't you feel safe now?

Jan Dehn
Feb 1, 20231 min read
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