Winston Smith's 1983 poster redesigned featuring Donald Trump (Source: here)
The Californian punk band Dead Kennedys issued their final studio album titled 'Bedtime for Democracy" in 1986. They were arguably a bit early in calling the end of democracy in the United States, but the country now appears finally to have caught up with their dark vision.
This year the United States and, by implication, the rest of the world finds itself at a crucial pivot point as far as democracy is concerned. November's US presidential election pits one candidate, Joe Biden, who (more or less) believes in democracy, the rule of law, and respect for human rights, against another, Donald Trump, who patently does not.
In other words, this election is not just a choice between two old white men, Republican versus Democrat, or Left versus Right. It is a far more fundamental choice between Democracy and Fascism.
Far-Right populism has been on the ascendency since the economic crisis of 2008/2009. The crisis itself and the policy responses after the crisis marginalised white lower-income groups, which make up the bulk of the support for the Far-Right. The crisis also discredited mainstream politicians, who have gradually been replaced by ever more reactionary populists. Their myopic scapegoat policies have, as such policies always do, further eroded economic conditions by pushing up income inequality, blocking immigration, raising the cost of living, undermining investment in key public services, and reversing globalisation (for more on the downwards economics-politics spiral in Western democracies see here).
Some 500 years before the Common Era, the Greek tragic dramatist Aeschylus coined the phrase 'in war, truth is the first casualty'. On this metric, we are already fighting. The US Far-Right has been extremely successful in entrenching anti-establishment views among its many poorly informed and deeply religious followers. They literally take anything they are told - from the most blatant lies to the most ridiculous conspiracy theories - as gospel truth. Meanwhile, rational counter-arguments, even when backed by data and scientific evidence, are dismissed as manipulation and falsehood. Even court judgements are called into question as evidence of a wider conspiracy.
Given the gravity of the situation, one could be forgiven for imagining a cacophony of opposition to Trump right across the political spectrum ranging from the far Left to moderate conservatives, with the Democrats out in front leading the charge.
Yet, this is not the case. In fact, the opposite is true. For one, the Democratic Party is led by a less than inspiring octogenarian, who does not rouse anyone, let alone himself. More fundamentally, Democrats appear timid, slow, on the back foot, seemingly paralysed by the Far-Right's aggressive tactics.
My view is that Democrats and most democratically-minded intellectuals are still in complete denial about what they are facing in Trump and what takes to defeat Fascism. They still believe - much like the British did with respect to Hitler - that Fascism can be contained by negotiation and by following the rules. They continue to place their faith in law and Congress, and they insist on respecting human rights.
Yet, Trump's forward momentum is fuelled precisely by challenging those very ideas. The old order is entirely discredited among his supporters and Trump knows it. So he wastes no time signalling his willingness to break the law, even the Constitution. He says he will exit international agreements, such as NATO. He runs Congress, yet he is willing to stage a coup against democracy itself if election outcomes go against him, as, indeed, he did on January 6, 2021. He has complete disregard for human rights.
Trump began to stuff the US Supreme Court with friendly judges during his first term. He will continue this process if he wins a second term. This is the classic path to dictatorship. Once the courts are tamed, he can pass any law he wants - even illegal or unconstitutional ones - and the courts will do nothing. He will, in effect, have carte blanche to assume absolute power.
Trump's aggressive and confrontational style of politics gives him the apperance of decisiveness, which is exactly what voters want in times of strife and great uncertainty. While democratically-minded politicians wallow in hesitant irresolution, Trump emulates the only politicians who actually display any kind of decisiveness at the moment, namely the fascist leaders of Russia and Israel, who, with impunity and on a daily basis, carry out gross abuses of both international law and human rights in Ukraine and Gaza, respectively.
If elected, will Trump work to uphold recent judgements against Israel in the International Court of Justice? Of course not! Yet, the bigger problem is that Biden will not either.
Did Trump destroy the perfectly effective Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to contain Iran's nuclear program? Of course he did! But did Biden re-instate it? No, he did not.
A similar dynamic is playing out in the United Kingdom, where the Labour party patently refuses to commit to reversing even the Conservative Party's most distasteful policies, despite the fact that they clearly damage the UK economy (only this week the UK sank into outright recession - see here).
In short, the Fascists are doing all the leading, while the democratically-minded are doing all the bleating. The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.
Perhaps the greatest frustration - and also the greatest tragedy - is what is happening with the young. With the notable exception of a few very unique visionaries like Greta Thunberg and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, younger generations seem completely oblivious to the clouds gathering above their heads. Recall that Brexit - which is probably the single largest set back for young people in the UK for many generations - only came about because the young could not bothered to vote. American youth may well fall into the same trap. Trump's racism and sexism fly in the face of the values of many young Americans, but they seem entirely incapable of rising above their individualism to channel their generally sound views on gender, environment, and race into an effective political movement.
Those who believe in democracy need to wake up. They need to face the ugly fact that you only stop those who wish to destroy the system by using force. Because those who want to destroy the system will, without a shade of doubt, use force in return. And by then it will be too late. Just look at what happened to Alexei Navalny.
The key question is therefore this: when, if ever, will supporters of democracy take off their gloves and begin to use their superior intelligence and (for now) greater power to block the rise of Fascism?
There is not much time. Unless the courts get him first - while they still can - Donald Trump could well be the most powerful man in the world by November of this year.
Once he is in office, it is extremely likely that soft power - bankers and businesses - will fall in behind him, giving him yet more momentum. After all, banks and businesses always line up behind the strongest, the winners. Just look at how businesses behaved in Hitler's Germany, in Pinochet's Chile, in Mussollini's Italy.
A Trump victory will also boost Russian President Vladimir Putin. NATO suddenly looks extremely weak following Trump's recent invitation to Russia to invade any NATO member who does not contribute 2% of GDP to the defence alliance (see here).
Europe will also be at greater risk from within as Far-Right movements that are currently gaining influence in Germany and France will be further boosted by a Trump win.
What will all this mean for people at level of the individual? We are likely to see the kind of polarisation we last saw under former US President George W Bush ("Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists"). Only far worse. Obedience or ostracisation. If you want an illustration of what that means in practice take a look at Myanmar. Last week, the dictatorship in Myanmar announced the introduction of the draft in response to setbacks in its fight against supporters of democracy (see here). Young Burmese people now face a very stark choice: join the tyranny, fight the tyranny, or flee the tyranny. Fence-sitting is no longer an option. Similar agonising choices are coming to you very soon unless you act now.
The End