Time is ticking for Trump

Populism sows the seeds of its own destruction unless the populist finds a way to assume total power. Trump is enough of a sociopath to try, but he have the brains? (Source: here)

All populist leaders are in a race against time from the moment they are elected. Their policies tend to be so myopic, divisive, and ineffective that they usually only have a very short time to cement themselves into their seats of power. Due to the difficulty of assuming greater executive powers by conventional means, such as passing new laws populists often try to add to their powers by weakening or entirely dismantling the systems of political accountability designed to keep them in check.

Successful populist leaders succeed in acquiring extra-ordinary powers – and usually become dictators, often holding power for years or even decades.

However, it is tricky business to assume power unconstitutionally. It requires great luck, considerable intelligence, or both. Populists, who successfully transition from democratic to dictatorial leaders also tend to be sociopaths, because their compulsion to power must be so overwhelming that they no heed whatsoever to the consequences of their actions for everyone else.

Fortunately, the vast majority of populists do not succeed in becoming dictators. While they are usually sociopaths, not many are intelligent enough to assume and hold on to new powers. Instead, they get ousted quite quickly as the fallout from their ill-designed policies and their lack of brain capacity to handle so many complex political pressures soon undermine their support, both among allies and in the wider public. 

How does Donald Trump stack up in the populist leader stakes? Will he become dictator for life or will his term end prematurely? Based on his actions in the short time that has lapsed since he took office in January 2025, I would argue Trump belongs to the not-so-intelligent variety of sociopaths. Consider the evidence:

• Less than two months into office, Trump’s support has begun to crumble. A poll released ahead of his State of the Union address finds that a statistically significant majority of Americans no longer believe the state of the union is strong (see here)

• There is mounting evidence that Elon Musk’s DOGE lay-offs and public spending cuts are not going down well in Republican town halls (see here)

• Senior GOP Congressmen publicly voice concern about Trump's pro-Russian agency on behalf of Putin (see here).

The US economy is also beginning to show worrying signs of weakness. For many weeks now, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast has pointed to a sharp slowdown and the latest Q1 GDP number - minus 0.3% qoq sa - confirms it. The economy is contracting under the enormous uncertainty Trump has created about trade and institutional integrity. The impact on investment and consumption is likely to show up in future GDP releases.

The economy is tanking - Thank you, Trump! (Source: here)

While Republican Congressmen made valiant attempts to resurrect Trump's reputation after the recent Zelensky debacle in the White House, the episode has undermined trust in the United States outside the narrowing circle of Trump's most zealous supporters. There is a growing perception that Trump’s leadership and diplomatic skills are simply not up to the job. 

Think about it! In the Zelensky meeting, Trump managed to lose the confidence of the entire European continent, America’s longest and strongest allies, and effectively handed the mantle of global leadership to Britain and France.

Quite remarkable stuff.

But there may be more bad news for America in the pipeline. Trump and Co have publicly stated support for leaving NATO, the United Nations and even the World Bank and IMF. If the US leaves these institutions, it would carve massive chunks out of the foundations of American hegemony, in turn calling into question the US Dollar’s safe-haven status and US Treasury bills as risk free assets. The Dollar and Treasuries are both absolutely central to American soft power and prosperity (for a broader discussion of the concept of risk-free bonds see here).

Trump’s performance as president so far has been so shockingly bad that even I am surprised! Remember that Trump has been president before, so he ought to know better! He also has extensive experience with legal issues (for better and mostly worse). Honestly, I had expected, based on his prior experience, that Trump would be far more surgical and efficient in building his power base at the start of his second term. Specifically, I had expected Trump to work hard right away to secure absolute control over the legal system, for example by appointing a slew of compliant new judges to the Supreme Court.

But he has not done so. Instead, he has issued a ton of executive orders, which, though they make a lot of noise and create nice headlines will not support him politically for very long. In fact, many of Trump’s executive orders are already being challenged in the lower courts, where many will eventually be overturned. And once this starts to happen, the entire political tide will turn against Trump, with the media in tow.

Based on the developments so far, I am prepared to go out in a limb and say that Trump is simply too unintelligent and too short-sighted to succeed. I do not think he will finish his term.

Harvard economist Dani Rodrik noted in a recent article published by Project Syndicate (see here) that Trump is creating dangerously many divisions within his own power base and that these divisions may ultimately bring about his demise.

To me, it is not yet clear exactly how 'The Fall of Trump' will come about – which specific straw breaks the camel’s back so to speak – but I agree with Rodrik that an implosion looks very likely. And I think it could happen anytime, even sooner than anyone expects. Trump's poll ratings are key. The US Congress mainly serves corporate interests, but members of Congress like to portray itself as representative of ordinary voters. Once Trump's poll ratings fall far enough they will provide a fig-leaf for Congress to impeach Trump. The real reason for impeaching Trump will be his mismanagement of the economy, however.

There is no provision for snap elections under the US Constitution, so JD Vance will take over. He will either accept to be Congress' biatch, or he too will quickly be ousted.

Given these prospects, Trump must act quickly to lock himself firmly into power to avoid being unseated. It is either that or an ignominious early exit. I certainly do not see Trump turning into a boring mainstream politician all of a sudden; he will either double-down hard on State Capture (see here) or he is out.

If Trump, or, more likely, his advisors, are intelligent enough to realise that Trump's time is ticking we may be in for a rough ride. We can expect Trump to launch further vicious attack on the institutional integrity of the United States, possibly very soon and most likely involving the Supreme Court.

The success or otherwise of these de facto coups d'état will determine whether the United States abandons democracy to become a fully paid-up member of the Dictator Club alongside Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela, or pulls back from the brink.

The contrast between these very different outcomes is obviously stark. Pulling back from the brink will ultimately strengthen American democracy. Or, as Nietzsche put it, “Lo que no te mata te hace más fuerte”. 

The End