All change in November

It is possible (Source: here)

November 3, 2026 is a key date for the United States as well as for the rest of the world. On this Tuesday, some 160 million American registered voters will be able to cast their ballots in the US mid-term election to determine the fate of 435 seats in the US House of Representatives as well as 35 of the 100 seats in the US Senate.

The election, however, will not only determine, which party controls Congress; the midterms will also effectively decide the future of President Donald Trump and, possibly, even the fate of America's political system. Will Americans give Trump the power he needs to decisively abandon democracy, or will they reject authoritarianism in order to set out on the long and arduous road back to democracy?

As I write these words, there are Republican majorities in both houses of the US Congress; the Senate has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents (who tend to vote with the Democrats), while the House of Representatives has 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and 3 current vacancies.

Based on a slew of recent polls, Democrats look set to gain between 2% and 8% of the vote from the Republicans. This means that the House is likely to go Democrat, but the Senate could swing either way. For example, a 2% gain would be insufficient to swing the Senate to the Democrats, but an 8% swing would put the Democrats firmly in the driving seat.

With the political scales so finely balanced, the next eight months are hugely important in US politics. As both political parties seek to gain and maintain the political momentum with increasing urgency, while at the same time batting away sensitive issues US politics will become more and more frenzied as November draws closer.

The Senate race is particularly important, because only the Senate has the power to get rid of Trump. In the first stage of the two-stage impeachment procedure, the House of Representatives investigates and charges Trump provided there is a simple majority in favour. In stage two, the Senate convicts and removes Trump, but only if there is a two-thirds majority in favour.

None of the recent polls suggest that the Democrats will get anywhere near a 2/3 majority in the Senate, but this should not make Trump feel safe. Trial or no trial, the House impeachment procedure will prove hugely damaging and, of course, - depending on the strength of the evidence - enough Republicans in the Senate could yet turn against Trump to bring about his removal from office.

So the stakes are huge. If the Democrats gain decisive control of the House, which looks likely, then Trump will face immediate impeachment in the House over his crimes a number of which fall within the broad category of "Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanours". In addition to going after Trump over his obvious and illegal profiteering in office, the Democrats will be particularly keen to bring down Trump over his star role in Epstein's paedophilia ring.

Trump on trial - a possibility after November (Source: here)

Even if the Republicans retain sufficient cohesion to dismiss impeachment charges against Trump, which would allow the president to muddle-through in the last two years of his term, it seems certain that 2027 and 2028 will be extremely unstable years with Trump rendered a lame duck.

Faced with such an unpleasant scenario, it is imperative to consider the question whether Trump would even allow the midterm election to proceed in a free and fair fashion. Under practically any other president, such a question would not even arise, because US law gives no role whatsoever for the president in running elections in the United States. All powers related to campaign finance, election administration, election security, redistricting, qualifications and contested elections, and voting rights are vested with Congress, various federal agencies, and the state (see here).

However, Trump is no ordinary president. He has already exercised considerable over-reach with respect to elections, including issuing an executive order in March of last year, which tampers directly with a number of areas related to elections (see here).

Trump's executive order is being challenged, but he is appealing lower court decisions, so the cases eventually end up in the Supreme Court, which has for the most part been very pro-Trump. However, the most recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs went against Trump, so maybe the Court is no longer quite as willing to see its authority undermined as it has been in the past.

For now, however, Trump continues to repeat his Goebbels-like false allegations of systematic vote rigging in past elections as an excuse for increasing his control over future elections, particularly in Democrat-controlled states. Earlier this month, Trump said,

“The Republicans should say, ‘We want to take over, we should take over the voting, the voting in at least many, 15 places.’ The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting.”  (see here).

Trump has also threatened to deploy agents from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to polling stations in what can only be described as a very thinly veiled attempt to deter non-white voters from casting their ballots (see here).

Stephen Miller strategises for Trump (Source: here)

In my view, we should absolutely expect Trump to play dirty if the election result goes against him. Trump cannot be held criminally responsible for any illegal acts committed while in office, so he has very little to lose by challenging a bad midterm election result.

If Trump tampers with the midterm election, then American democracy will truly hover on a precipice. Many ordinary Americans will react with great vengeance and furious anger, leading to serious instability, which in turn will prompt Trump to instruct his ICE Brownshirts to clamp down on protesters.

I note in this context that ICE is currently boosting the number of beds in its more than 200 detention facilities from 40,000 to 135,000 following Congress's approval of the USD 45bn ICE budget, which was part of Trump's Big Beautiful Bill. The detention beds are supposedly for illegal immigrants, but why so many beds if immigrant detainees are going to be deported anyway? Could these beds really be meant for ordinary Americans, who refuse to kowtow?

Suppose the Supreme Court rules against Trump over election interference. Who would enforce the Court's decision? Pam Bondi's Department of Justice is so completely politicised that it is unlikely to act. Then the US armed forces would be the only institution left to uphold the US Constitution.

Attorney General Pam Bondi (Source: here)

Which is why Trump's ongoing preparations for war against Iran are quite intriguing. Many senior officers in the US armed forces would welcome a little war with Iran, because wars boost military budgets and create promotion opportunities. Is the impending war with Iran really about shoring up support for Trump within the armed forces ahead of the midterms, just in case he annuls the election?

Regardless of what happens in November, it is now obvious to everyone that there are serious structural weaknesses in America's democracy. In particular, Trump has proven that it is far too easy for an immoral and criminal president to ride roughshod over inbuilt checks and balances, particularly with respect to the Supreme Court and the Department of Justice. Once Trump is gone and his grotesque populism discredited there will be urgent need for new measures to re-enforce America's fragile constitution.

The End