The unassailable logic of Putin’s aggression

He has a plan (Source: here)

There is unassailable logic in Russia’s escalating aggression against European NATO member states.

Yesterday, a Russian navy ship fired on a Danish military helicopter off the coast near the Danish town of Gedser, but this is only the latest episode in a long line of attacks in an escalating Russian campaign against European NATO member states.

Previous attacks include firebombing of aid warehouses in Latvia, targeting of defence manufacturers in Germany and Poland, and attempted sabotage against infrastructure and military sites across Western Europe.

There have also been damage and disruptions to critical seabed communication cables and energy pipelines in the Baltic Sea plus violations of NATO airspace over Poland, Romania, and Estonia by Russian drones and military fighter aircraft.

In addition, Russia has disrupted commercial civilian flights, emergency medical services, energy grids, and maritime navigation through jamming and cyber attacks and interfered in elections.

These attacks are all part of Putin’s master plan to resurrect the Soviet Union. And, as things stand, he may well succeed. Here is why.

First, Putin knows that European populations have no desire whatsoever to go to war with Russia, particularly after witnessing the enormous toll on Ukrainians in the war with Russia.

Putin also believes, probably rightly, that many individual European NATO member states are incapable of fighting Russia on their own, especially smaller NATO members.

Third, Russia is betting that anti-war sentiment in Europe will prevent a united NATO response in case Russia engages in open conflict with an individual NATO member state.

Is he right? Ask yourself if you seriously believe young men in, say, France will fight and die for Estonians? Or if Spanish soldiers will die to defend Italy? Or if Danes will send their sons to die for Greeks or Turks?

Russia only attacks European targets, not American ones. This is telling. Putin knows that only the Americans are capable of leading a pan-NATO response to Russian aggression, since Europeans still do not have a unified defence capability of their own.

Putin is also acutely aware of - and has for a long time been cultivating - Trump’s sympathy with Russia. To Putin’s delight, Trump has even threatened to invade the Greenland territory of Denmark, a fellow NATO member state. Putin has Trump and the United States exactly where he wants them.

Given these realities, we can be sure that Russia’s pin-prick aggressions against Europe will continue and even intensify. Eastern European countries are especially vulnerable. As long as Europe remains weak and divided there is nothing to stop Putin from picking off vulnerable European states one by one. Should any outright confrontation expose huge cracks in the NATO alliance, then they will instantly be exploited by Putin to rebuild the old Soviet Union, starting with annexation of nations on Europe’s Eastern border, such as the Balkans, Romania, Poland, Moldova, Slovakia, Finland, even Denmark.

Europe’s weakness is rooted in tribalism, which, unfortunately, is getting worse by the day. Nationalism is on the rise all over Europe and immigration is turning Europeans into a little Nazis. One European election after another brings fascists closer to power; many openly align themselves with Putin.

The only way to overcome European tribalism is to shift power from European nation states to the EU in order that EU may act decisively on behalf of all European NATO member states. EU needs fiscal union to be able to build an effective joint defence capability. But transfers of powers to Brussels require an end to EU’s crippling unanimity rules, i.e. a new Treaty. Treaty changes seem extremely unlikely to pass in all 27 EU member states in the current political climate.

Right now the EU’s strategy appears to be to pin hopes on discovering a magical ability to overcome internal divisions if one or two member states are attacked by Russia, but there is no way of actually knowing if this will happen.

Given the absolute certainty of continued Russian aggression, it is simply not good enough to leave the defence of Europe to wishful thinking.

The End