Famous last words

Donald's letter to Jonas (Source: here)

US President Donald J. Trump's letter to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has garnered a lot of attention in the last few days. The most insightful part of the letter is Trump's admission that his primary motivation for invading Greenland is that Norway did not award him the Nobel Peace Prize. Specifically, Trump wrote in his opening paragraph:

"Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace".

The US president then goes on to claim that Denmark has no right to ownership of Greenland, that Russia and China pose major threats, and that the entire world is not safe until the United States has "Complete and Total Control of Greenland".

All three claims are verifiably false. For example, see below.

US Secretary of State Robert Lansing committing US by treaty that Denmark has right to “whole of Greenland" (Source: here)

However, my main point is a different one. I think Trump's letter to Jonas Gahr Støre is a major mistake, an own goal, which de facto puts an end to Trump's Greenland adventures.

Think about it. We now have IN WRITING - from Trump's own hand - that the US president wants to invade another country because he did not get a prize! Or to put it more bluntly, Trump is proposing to destroy NATO, hurt the US economy with tariffs, and put in harm's way the lives of US service men & women and soldiers from fellow NATO allies just because he did not get his stupid prize!

In my opinion, an invasion of Greenland out of sheer petulance will simply not fly, not even with the current crop of wacky Republicans in Congress. I see no reality in which not receiving a Nobel Peace Prize can be valid justification for invading another country, especially a NATO ally.

Of course, Trump has other shady motivations for attacking Greenland, but he cannever run away from what he wrote in the Norway letter; it is right there, printed in black and white.

Forever.

The letter will undoubtedly feature as a key piece of evidence in a future impeachment trial. Which could happen as early as next year if Republicans do badly in November's mid-term election. Which they look set to do.

Trump is currently ramping up his threats and warnings, and they look set to become even louder and more numerous as we head into the World Economic Forum at Davos.

I think Trump's noise is bluster designed to help him save face. This means that it is now time for Europe to assume the offensive, ratcheting up counter-pressure on Trump in Davos. In particular, Europe should decline all offers of a negotiated settlement over Greenland. 

A firm European response to Trump would have two major benefits. First, a defeat for Trump would give his most fervent Republican supporters in Congress a walloping at the midterm elections in November. In turn, that would, at worst, render Trump a lame duck, at best pave the way for a much-needed impeachment trial. Second, a (rare) European foreign policy win would inject major momentum into the European project and help to side-line Quisling Europeans, such as Czech prime minister Andrej Babiš and Hungary's Viktor Orbán.

My view is that Mad King Donald’s insane Greenland idea is dead as a dodo. If I am proven wrong then this blog will probably go down as my personal 'famous last words'. On the other hand, if I am proven right then Trump's Norway letter may well go down as his.

The End