Why Spain wins and England loses

Love of football, not Empire (Source: here)

Spain has played the odds better than any other team in the FIFA 2026 World Cup. It is no accident that Spain - not Brazil, not Germany, not France, not England - is in the final.

Football games are won by scoring goals, which requires teams to possess the ball. Spain's over-riding objective throughout the tournament has been to maximise possession. Spain has understood this better than any other team.

Spain's semi-final victory over France in particular was a masterclass in possession football. Spain’s control of the game was so complete that France, an extremely strong team, was made to look pedestrian.

Spain pursues possession football with great skill and extreme discipline; unless the strikers feel they have exceptionally good odds of scoring, they will break off their attack, pass the ball back to the defenders, and start afresh from all the back. Playing this way, Spain does not give up possession frivolously by attempting to score goals with zero or near-zero chances of success.

Spain's style of play is also aided by a defence so strong that France only managed an average of 41 seconds of possession when they had the ball. And, of course, Spain had Unai Simón, the Athletic Bilbao keeper, who played out of his skin. His audacious sprint to save against Kylian Mbappé in the middle of the pitch - an exercise in perfect timing - will not be forgotten for a long time.

_____

Argentina emulates Spain's possession game. In the second half of its semi-final against England, Argentina controlled the ball no less than 88% of the time, which, unsurprisingly, enabled them to score twice and win the match.

Argentina's victory sets up a World Cup final, which pits the two best teams in the competition against one other. As it should be. Both teams reached the final, because they controlled the ball better and for longer than other teams. This is the first time two teams specialising in possession football clash in World Cup final. It should be interesting.

It will also be an intensely political final, at least off the pitch. Argentina's president is the right-wing, ultra-libertarian, Trump-loving Javier Milei, while Spain is led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, a Socialist, who has not been shy about expressing his negative views of Israel, Trump, etc.

I can't wait for the 90 minutes to be up. I want to see Trump present the trophy to Spain, which he will hate. I will celebrate twice, once because the best team has won the World Cup, a second time because of sheer schadenfreude over Trump's predicament.

_____

Finally, a word on England. Fox Sports chose to show actor Kenneth Branagh’s rousing rendition of the famous St. Crispin's Day speech from Shakespeare's Henry V  before the semi-final match with Argentina in a bid to awaken the marshal spirit of the English.

You see, the English are not like Norwegians, who celebrate defeat and victory with collective rowing, or Cape Verdeans, who are just happy to participate. No! The English see the competition as a test of their inherent superiority. They feel entitled to victory. Deep down, they believe they are better than other people.

Brutishness, anger, aggression, just like in the old days of Empire (Source: here)

Rooted in England’s imperial past, this deep-seated, but unfounded, belief in their own superiority gives rise to sense of entitlement, which finds expression on the football pitch. England's footballers have replaced the Redcoats, but expectations have not diminished: England must rule the waves. Anything other than victory must imply betrayal, foul play. It cannot possibly be that England is just not the strongest team. This is why so much of the emotion that surrounds the England's men's team is anger, where other countries experience joy.

England lost in the semi-final. The obvious reason - that Argentina was the better team - is unacceptable. The English sense of entitlement has been grossly violated. The usual ugly aftermath of defeat must now commence. Someone must be blamed. Defeat requires traitors' blood to be spilled.

The English players cannot escape the intense pressure to win. It is deeply unfair on these young and talented players that they have to secure world domination every time they step onto the park. No wonder they get nervous. Who wouldn't be if you had to reproduce the Battle of Plassey, Waterloo, the Battle of Trafalgar, Rorke's Drift, and the Battle of Omdurman every time you play? Invariably, we sometimes get an Isandlwana, a retreat from Kabul, the Fall of Singapore instead. After all, even English players are only human.

Other countries recognise that victory is not something you are entitled to. Look at Brazil. Look at Germany. Both are former multiple-times World Cup winners for whom FIFA 2026 was a dud, but it is ok.

The truth is that winning the World Cup requires skill, which always depends a great deal on genetic accidents. Winning also requires quite a bit on pure luck. Only then do the clever tactics, such as those deployed by Argentina and especially Spain, enter into the picture. No one can ever be certain of victory, yet this is exactly what the English demand of their players.

No surprise, then, that England often disappoints. The unreasonable pressure stifles the lively play we see in the Premiership every season. England last won any major competition in 1966, which is closer in time to the outbreak of World War I than today. Unless and until the culture of Empire that surrounds the England men's team is eliminated, England will continue to perform worse than the sum of its parts.

The End