How to kill a country

Sahrawi woman (Source: here)

I recently visited Western Sahara. There is no agreement, who should control this territory, but Morocco has steadily been annexing the area in ways that are very reminiscent of what Israel is doing in Gaza and the West Bank. By actively supporting settlements and making life impossible for the incumbent population, the Moroccan government is slowly killing this resource-rich, but sparsely populated region in northwestern corner of the Sahara desert. It is only a question of time before Western Sahara becomes de jure part of Morocco. At this point, the original inhabitants of the area, the Sahrawis, will become a stateless people. Just like the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.

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Western Sahara is large. It covers about 270,000 square kilometres, which is slightly larger than the United Kingdom. Prior to colonialism, the area was inhabited by fewer than 100,000 desert nomads and pastoralists. No one even thought of the territory in nation-state terms. Left alone, the unique Sahrawi culture evolved as indigenous Berber tribes mixed with Maqil Arab tribes over the course of five centuries prior to the late 1800s.

In 1884, the Spanish government laid claim to large sections of the southern coastline of Western Sahara, initially to build slave ports, later to take advantage of the good fishing grounds off the African continent. The Spanish timed their arrival to have their claim validated at the notorious Berlin Conference that took place the same year. Spain thenseforth declared the southern part of Western Sahara its colony. In 1904, Spain annexed the northern part of Western Sahara up to today's border with Morocco as well. The Sahrawis were not best pleased to be subjugated to Spain, but were violently suppressed and finally pacified by the 1930s.

Following Franco's victory in the Spanish Civil War in 1939, Western Sahara was given the official name Spanish Sahara. The northern and southern administrations were combined into a single administration 1958, but then pretty much nothing happened on the institutional front until Franco died in late 1975.

Meanwhile, a lot was going on elsewhere, which would eventually have lasting consequences for Western Sahara and the Sahrawi people. In 1956, Morocco gained independence from France and almost immediately began to lay claim to the territory. Mauritania became independent four years later and also made a claim. Both countries based their claims on alleged historical ties, but in reality this only boiled down to the fact that small numbers of Sahrawis had been living in both Morocco and Mauritania. The Sahrawis did not agree that this gave Morocco and Mauritania the right to control their country. Instead, the Sahrawis insisted on being governed only by Sahrawis.

Morocco and Mauritania gradually stepped up the pressure on Spain throughout the 1960s and early 1970s with thinly veiled threats of military intervention. In response, the Sahrawis formed an armed independence movement, which they called Polisario Front. Polisario's purpose was to advance independence from Spain and defend Sahrawi territory against the Moroccan and Mauritanian designs on their homeland. Polisario received financial, logistical, and military support from Algeria. Polisario set up it's main base in Tindouf, an Algerian town near the Moroccan border with Spanish Sahara.

Background on Moroccan-Algerian tensions: Algeria’s support for the Sahrawis was not motivated solely by altruism. From the beginning, Algeria saw Polisario and the Sahrawis as weapons in Algeria's long-standing dispute with Morocco over the location of the border between the two countries. As with so many other African border disputes, this one too can be traced back to colonialism. Until 1912, France had only defined the border between Morocco and Algeria, its two north African possessions, in the northern-most section of the Atlas Mountains. In 1912, the so-called Varnier Line extended the border further south, but vast distances yet further south were still undefined. The failure to define the border became a major issue after France withdrew as post-independence political interests in Morocco and Algeria laid claim to overlapping sections of the territory, thus fuelling recurring tensions. In 1963, Algeria and Morocco went to war over this issue (the 'Sand War'), which left deep political scars in both countries. Things have not improved since. In 1994, the border was formally closed and has not been opened since. In 2021, Algeria severed diplomatic ties with Morocco after alleging that Morocco supports separatists Kabylia rebels within Algeria. In 2023, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune stated that relations between two countries had reached a "point of no return".

A right mess: the various borders between Morocco and Algeria (Source: here)

By the early 1970s, the Moroccan and Mauritanian pressure on Spain to give up Western Sahara intensified further amidst the general backdrop of strong pro-Independence sentiment worldwide. In 1973, in a bid to control events, which were rapidly spinning out of control, Spain proposed a referendum for Western Sahara that would offer the Sahrawis a choice between independence, Moroccan, or Mauritanian control. The following year Spain undertook a census, which established that 73,497 Sahrawis were living in the territory with an estimated 30,000 additional Sahrawis living across the border in Algeria. At this time, there were still only very small numbers of Moroccan settlers and Mauritanians living in the territory.

Morocco refused to back the referendum, because it would almost certainly have led to Sahrawi sovereignty in Western Sahara. Faced with this impasse, Spain put the question of Western Sahara's future before the United Nations (UN) in 1975. The UN and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) both ruled that Moroccan and Mauritanian links were not strong enough to warrant sovereignty for anyone other than the Sahrawis.

This prompted Morocco to send some 350,000 Moroccans across the border into Western Sahara in what is called the 'Green March'. The green colour signals faith and peace in the Islamic faith. Shortly prior to the incursion, however, Moroccan troops had also crossed into the territory. These twin-invasions marked the beginning of Morocco's program of settlement in Western Sahara, whose purpose from the beginning was to change the situation in order to force an eventual Moroccan take-over of Western Sahara.

The Green March was too much for Spain to handle. Post-France Spain had no appetite to take on Morocco, so quickly ceded two-thirds of northern Spanish Sahara to Morocco and the southern third to Mauritania. In exchange, Spain got mining and fishing rights. Three months later, Spain had left the territory, which from that moment on became known as Western Sahara to the rest of the world.

Polisario strongly opposed the Spanish deal with Morocco and Mauritania, because it completely denied any influence to the Sahrawis. In response, the Sahrawis declared independence on 27 Feb 1976 and baptised their new nation the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). 45 UN member states immediately recognised SADR. Polisario followed up the declaration of independence with guerrilla war, which would eventually last some sixteen years.

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Various perspectives of the Berm (Sources: various)

Polisario was initially successful. It forced Mauritania out of the southern third of Western Sahara following an audacious bombardment of Nouakchott, the Mauritanian capital. However, Morocco used Mauritania's departure as pretext for claiming sovereignty over the entire territory of Western Sahara. To enforce its claim, Morocco constructed a 2,700 miles long wall of sand and land mines known as the Berm. The Berm stretches from the Atlantic Ocean at the border with Mauritania to south of Agadir near the border with Algeria.

Map of the Berm (Source: here)

By 1991, the bloodshed had failed to produce a decisive result, so both sides agreed to an UN-sponsored ceasefire proposal, which included a referendum on the fate of Western Sahara to be held the following year. By this point, Morocco had annexed 70% of Western Sahara, while Polisario controlled the remaining 30%. However, the proposed referendum never took place due to disagreements about who was eligible to vote. Polisario insisted that only those counted in the 1974 Spanish census should be eligible to vote, while Morocco said that everyone currently living in the territory should participate, including the hundreds of thousands of Moroccans, who had been sent to Western Sahara during and after the Green March.

The impasse lasted until 1997, when Morocco put forward a counter-proposal that Western Sahara be given autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty. The proposal in turn became part of the Baker Plan of 2000, which called for a referendum after 5 years of autonomy in which all those living in Western Sahara would be eligible to vote.

Morocco rejected the referendum for two reasons. First, by the early 2000s newly crowned King Mohammed VI of Morocco had set his sights on gaining complete control over Western Sahara. Second, the King was worried that many Moroccans living in Western Sahara would support independence from Morocco, so as no longer to have to live under his rule.

In 2003, a successor to the Baker plan was put forward, which won the support of Polisario as well as UN Security Council endorsement. Morocco still refused, but put forward a counter-proposed in 2006 that Western Sahara be made a self-governing community within Morocco. Polisario once again rejected the plan over concerns about insufficient autonomy.

With all diplomatic options thus exhausted, low-level warfare resumed and lasted throughout the 2010s despite a ceasefire being in place. In 2020, both sides formally acknowledged that the 1991 ceasefire was dead, but this prompted a sudden intervention from US President Donald Trump, who, in December 2020, granted full recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the whole of Western Sahara without any regard to Sahrawi interests.

As part of the Trump deal, Morocco was also offered access to advanced US weaponry, which would help Morocco in the ongoing dispute with Algeria. The only thing required of Morocco was to normalise relations with Israel. This King Mohammed IV was happy to do. Shortly after, Spain and the United Kingdom backed the Trump plan, but France was still hesitant. In order to get France on board, Morocco cleverly exploited France's recent expulsions from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Morocco was able to offer France some influence over the three countries by leveraging its control of the port of Dakhla in Western Sahara, which the three landlocked countries needed in order to trade with the outside world. France soon came around.

As part of the annexation plan, Morocco is also turning the port of Dakhla iinto a tourism mecca with world-class kite-surfing, not unlike Trump's plans for Gaza after Israel has fully annexation of the Palestinian territory and kicked out or subjugated its inhabitants.

Kite surfing in Dakhla (Source: here)

Morocco even managed to win the support of many African countries, which has for a long time been strongly supportive of Polisario. Morocco did this by making phosphate from Western Sahara available to African countries in exchange for recognition of Morocco's claim on Western Sahara. Phosphate is a key ingredient in fertiliser and Western Sahara's phosphate deposits account for 70% of the world total.

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In recognition of broadening recognition of Morocco's claim to Western Sahara, in October 2025 the UN Security Council formally recognised a Moroccan proposal for autonomy for Western Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty as the basis for all future talks. The writing is now truly on the wall as far as the Sahrawis are concerned. Polisario fight increasingly looks like a lost cause. It is only a question of time before Western Sahara is formally made a part of Morocco. The Sahrawis will be left with an unenviable choice between exile in Algeria or life as a minority population within Morocco.

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Today, there are some 600,000 people living in Western Sahara. Western Sahara is still the second-least populated country in the world (after Greenland), but all that matters from a geopolitical point of view is that Sahrawis only make up 190,000 of the total population, or 31%. As the number of Moroccans in Western Sahara continues to rise on the back of Moroccan subsidies and investments, the facts are rapidly changing on the ground, exactly as Morocco has planned when it orchestrated the Green March more than 50 years ago. A greater Morocco is being born at the expense of the Sahrawis, who, like the Palestinians, are now on track for statelessness.

It is no coincidence that Morocco and Israel are strengthening ties even though Israel is very unpopular among ordinary Moroccans. According to Arab Barometer only 13% of Moroccans support normalisation of ties with Israel, down from 31% in 2022. A 2025 Arab Opinion Index showed that just 6% of Moroccans support for recognition of the State of Israel. Still, King Mohammed VI retains sweeping powers over foreign policy, defence and other key portfolios, so his hold on power does not depend on popular opinion. He does not really care what his subjects think about Israel.

The most recent meeting between Morocco and Israel took place on 17 September 2026, where the two countries decided to further deepen diplomatic relations. Liaison offices are to be upgraded to embassies and the two countries will exchange ambassadors. Morocco also secured Israeli recognition of sovereignty over Western Sahara, and presumably Morocco will return the favour once Israel has completed its Lebensraum projects in Gaza and the West Bank.

New best buddies; King Mohammed VI and Benjamin Netanyahu (Source: here)

According to the deal with Israel, Morocco also gets access to sophisticated Israeli weaponry with which to fight Polisario and challenge Algeria, including anti-aircraft systems, artillery, radar, and kamikaze drones. The French newspaper L'Humanité claims that Morocco already uses Israeli drones east of the Berm to clear Poliario-held territory between the Berm and the Algerian border.

Like the Gaza genocide, the situation in Morocco has had spill-overs to relations with Spain. Spain claims that Morocco has deployed the Israeli Pegasus spyware against Spanish politicians, including Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and several of his ministerial colleagues. Given Spain's outspoken criticism of the Israeli genocide in Gaza, many in Spain also believe that Israel and Morocco may have colluded to send thousands of Moroccans across the border into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. If so, it would not be the first time Morocco has made use of such a tactic.

The End